The last two Memo’s discussed the general interest in startups. A month ago, I wrote a post titled “Is interest in startups in Iceland decreasing?”. The main point there was to bring forward data about the declining participation in cornerstone events like Gulleggið – business plan competition, and some accelerators.

And yes, I’m completely aware that I’m starting to sound like a negative tech-journalist-type that wants clicks. But well, I’m neither (not a journalist, don’t care about clicks), and I’m only looking at some numbers. Please, if you have insights or comments, let me know (email). I’m easily persuaded.

There’s just a little under two weeks left of Q1 2017, and if nothing changes – if no investment is announced, that is – it is the first time for a long time that there have been fewer than two investments in a quarter, two quarters in a row. A picture explains this better. The sad block in the lower right corner is us right now. (Also, this means that there’s very little point in doing a quarterly funding analysis for Q1, which makes me sad 😞 )

rounds-per-quarter-001

In fact, the last time we had two quarters in a row with only one investments each was Q3 and Q4 2013. At that time the only active fund investing in startup was NSA Ventures, I believe. Frumtak 1 had closed a year earlier (it was active until Dec 31, 2012) and no other VC fund had started investing.

In some ways, we’re in a similar situation now; there’s only one fund – Brunnur Ventures – that’s effectively active right now. NSA Ventures is capped, Frumtak 2 probably won’t invest in many new companies (they need capital to follow up on their investments), and Eyrir Sprotar is in a similar place, based on the most recent information I have.

Outlook

While it surely doesn’t look good right now, there are (some) positive signs up ahead.

First: the board of NSA Ventures will announce who will be hired as CEO of NSA Ventures this week. Almar Guðmundsson, chairman of the board, confirmed this in an email earlier. That means we should start seeing some movement there. (note: it seems the board did in fact not announce who would be hired as CEO)

Second: Crowberry Capital is raising, and hopefully they’ll close (soon). We could definitely use an early stage fund to keep the momentum going.

Third: I’ve heard rumours about an business angel network initiative. It’s something that has been on the horizon for some time, but apparently there’s some movement getting into that work now. That might spur some angel investment – although I have a feeling that there’s way more of that already going on than the numbers suggest.

Obviously, these three points are only enablers, not drivers, of startups. The main ingredient is founding teams and business ideas, and without them, any amount of VC money won’t help.

What do you think? Are we in for a downswing? Is the golden age of startups in Iceland over, or yet to come?

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